Lifetime Probabilities of Needing an Organ Transplant Versus Donating an Organ A

[Clark]

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1600-6143.2011.03675.x/abstract

Lifetime Probabilities of Needing an Organ Transplant Versus Donating an Organ After Death
S. D. Shemie1,2,3,4,*, L. Hornby1,2, J. Chandler2,5, P. Nickerson6,7, J. Burkell2,8
American Journal of Transplantation
Volume 11, Issue 10, pages 2085–2092, October 2011
DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-6143.2011.03675.x

Abstract
The lifetime probabilities of becoming a deceased organ donor and requiring or receiving an organ transplant are unknown. An actuarial analysis was performed in a representative Canadian sample. Using Canadian organ donation data 1999–2007, provincial waiting list and population census data, actuarial rates were produced that provide the probabilities, by age band and gender, of (1) becoming a deceased organ donor, (2) needing an organ transplant and (3) receiving all organs needed. Regardless of age, the lifetime probability of needing a transplant for males is approximately twice that of females. Depending on age, Canadians are five to six times more likely to need an organ transplant than to become a deceased organ donor. The lifetime probabilities of not receiving a required organ transplant, expressed as a percentage of individuals on the waiting list, ranges from approximately 30% at birth, 20 years and 40 years to approximately 40% at 60 years. Across provinces and genders, Canadians at all ages are much more likely to need an organ transplant than to become an organ donor. Approximately one-third of those in need of a transplant will never receive one. How this information may influence organ donation decisions is currently under study.